货币政策分化态势不会“速消”（经济透视）

　伴随全球经济的复苏步伐，市场普遍预期全球货币政策正常化将会到来。然而，回顾2017年以来的货币政策走势不难发现，主要经济体对货币政策调整的态度有异，货币政策分化的态势不会快速消失。

　　美联储方面，2015年12月以来数次加息，已将联邦基金目标利率提至1.25%—1.5%，市场预计美联储在2018年还将有3次加息的可能。欧央行对宽松政策的退出则相当谨慎。在保持零利率政策不变同时，欧央行将其资产购买计划调低至300亿欧元，并延长该计划至2018年9月。这一举措是在欧元区基本上摆脱了通缩阴影、通胀出现缓慢回升的背景下做出的，反映了欧央行在增长与通胀稳定目标之间的慎重抉择。日本央行持相似的姿态，在保持基本贴现率负0.1%的水平和每年80万亿日元资产购买的同时，对长期收益率实施了目标管理，防止长期利率上升过快对经济造成损害。

　　全球货币政策转向的节奏取决于多种因素。央行如何置换手中到期的国债，全球债务问题以及地缘政治风险都是重要的影响因素。不过，最为主要的，是各国央行在政策调整的时机选择上面临的两难选择：如果过早收紧和幅度过大，会抑制产出和阻碍实现通胀目标；如果过晚收紧和幅度不足，则不利于对资产价格的抑制。除了经济增长、通胀和就业指标作为指引，本轮货币政策正常化与央行缩表进程相互交织，使得政策调整的最佳时机选择越加困难。随着经济指标进一步改善，预计未来主要国家的利率收紧和央行缩表将同时进行。而遵循渐进和透明的原则对稳定市场预期尤其重要。

　　发达国家货币政策调整对新兴和发展中经济体的溢出效应不容忽视。从基本面看，新兴和发展中经济体的增长速度有所恢复，但恢复步伐不如发达经济体快，且在不同区域呈现多速复苏态势。目前，尽管外部融资总体有所恢复，但地区之间分布不均，其中亚太地区新兴经济体融资相对活跃。在资本流动方面，2018年伴随美国加息提速、美元走强，或将在新兴和发展中经济体形成新一轮的资本流出以及货币贬值，这对货币当局是否跟进加息形成压力。

　　此外，美元是新兴和发展中经济体外币融资的主要币种，美元汇率变动以及美元计价资本的跨境流动，将对上述国家的金融稳定造成冲击。更重要的是，国内金融脆弱性会强化外部金融冲击的力度。快速增长的国内债务以及与其关联的银行体系健康状况，是多数新兴和发展中经济体金融脆弱性的重要表现。

　　如何化解风险？总体上说，普遍复苏为新兴市场经济体抵御外部金融风险提供了基本面的支撑，但需根据就业和通胀等主要目标调整货币政策，对外部金融冲击特别是跨境资本流动的管理，需要以宏观审慎的监管措施加以配合，同时，抑制国内债务水平，提高金融体系的韧性，将有助于化解外部金融风险。

　　（作者为中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员）

　来源：《 人民日报 》

The trend of the differentiation of monetary policy will not be "fast" (economic perspective)

With the pace of global economic recovery, it is widely expected that the normalization of global monetary policy will come. However, looking back at the trend of monetary policy since 2017, it is easy to see that the attitude of major economies to monetary policy adjustment is different. The trend of monetary policy differentiation will not disappear quickly.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times since December 2015. It has raised the federal funds target interest rate to 1.25% to 1.5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve will have 3 interest rate increases in 2018. The ECB easing exit is very cautious. To maintain the zero interest rate policy unchanged at the same time, the ECB will lower its asset purchase program to 30 billion euros, and extend the plan to September 2018. The move is in the euro zone basically get rid of the shadow of deflation and inflation to rise slowly under the background of the reflection of the ECB between growth and inflation stabilization targets careful choices. The Central Bank of Japan has a similar attitude, keeping the basic discount rate minus 0.1% level and buying 80 trillion yen per year. Meanwhile, it implements target management for long-term returns, preventing long-term interest rates from rising too fast and damaging the economy.

The pace of the global monetary policy shift depends on a variety of factors. How the central bank replaces the maturity of the Treasury bonds, global debt problems and geopolitical risks are important factors. However, the most important is that the central bank is facing dilemma in the timing of policy adjustment on the choice: if premature tightening and too much, will depress output and hinder the realization of the inflation target; if tightening and late enough, is not conducive to the suppression of asset prices. In addition to economic growth, inflation and employment indicators as guidelines, the normalization of the current monetary policy and the central bank shrinking process are intertwined, making the best timing of policy adjustment more difficult. With the further improvement of economic indicators, it is expected that the tightening of interest rates in the future major countries and the central bank shrinking table will be carried out in the future. The principle of gradualism and transparency is particularly important for stabilizing market expectations.

The spillover effect of the monetary policy adjustment in developed countries to the emerging and developing economies can not be ignored. From a fundamental perspective, the growth rate of emerging and developing economies has recovered, but the pace of recovery is faster than that of developed economies, and there is a trend of multiple recovery in different regions. At present, despite the overall recovery of external financing, the distribution of regions is uneven, among which emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region are relatively active. In terms of capital flow, in 2018, with the acceleration of US interest rate increase and the US dollar going strong, we will form a new round of capital outflow and currency depreciation in emerging and developing economies, which will create pressure for the monetary authorities to follow up interest rates.

In addition, the US dollar is the main currency of foreign currency financing in emerging and developing economies. The change of US dollar exchange rate and the cross-border flow of US dollar valuation capital will impact the financial stability of the above countries. More importantly, domestic financial vulnerability will strengthen the intensity of external financial shocks. The rapid growth of domestic debt and the health of its associated banking system are an important manifestation of the financial fragility of most emerging and developing economies.

How to dissolve the risk? Generally speaking, the common recovery provides fundamental support for emerging market economies to withstand external financial risk, but according to the need of employment and inflation and other major targets for monetary policy to external financial shocks, especially cross-border capital flow management to macro prudential supervision measures to cope with, at the same time, reduce domestic debt levels to improve the toughness of the financial system, will help to resolve external financial risk.

(the author is a researcher at the World Institute of economic and political research, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

"People's Daily"