报告预测澳大利亚将成全球第十一大经济体 中国有望成全球第一

人民网悉尼12月27日电 据《澳大利亚人报》报道，英国经济和商业研究中心（CEBR）预测，在未来十年内，人口增长将推动澳大利亚成为世界第十一大经济体。研究报告预测，澳大利亚在世界经济排名表中将从2017年的第13位上升至2026年的第11位。

研究中心预测称，排名表中依靠人才推动经济的国家将逐渐替代依靠自然资源的国家，而中国将在2030年替代美国成为世界第一大经济体。研究中心还预测了发展中国家的经济增长，例如，印度尼西亚和韩国将有望在2032年成为世界十大经济体之一。到2030年，世界四大经济体成员中将有三个亚洲国家，分别是中国、印度和日本。

研究中心指出，澳大利亚近几年依靠自然资源来推动经济增长，并且已经成为世界上最受欢迎的移民国家之一。澳大利亚对移民的接纳以及移民所带来的专业技能将成为未来推动澳大利亚经济增长的重要因素。

澳大利亚在2015至2016财政年共接纳了近19万移民。澳大利亚人口研究所2017年10月的调查显示，75%的澳大利亚人认为澳大利亚不再需要吸收更多的移民。研究所表示，导致这一调查结果的原因是大量移民对澳大利亚人生活品质的影响，以及对澳大利亚种族和宗教构成的改变。

然而，据CEBR的报告称，随着数据时代变革浪潮的推进，世界各国将需要更多的创新型人才，而最好的方式之一便是通过移民来引进更多人才。报告还预测，由于对可再生能源利用的增长，旧能源价格将在未来25年内下跌。能源强国或将由于缺乏多样性而面临经济增长的阻碍。

The report predicts that Australia will become the world's eleventh largest economy, China is expected to become the world's first

People's daily, Sydney, December, 27, according to the Australian newspaper, the British Center for economic and business research (CEBR) predicts that in the next ten years, population growth will drive Australia to become the eleventh largest economy in the world. The report predicts that Australia will rise from thirteenth in 2017 to eleventh in 2026 in the world economic ranking.

The research center predicts that the countries that rely on talents to promote economy will gradually replace the countries that rely on natural resources in the ranking table, while China will replace the US as the world's largest economy in 2030. The research center also predicts economic growth in developing countries, for example, Indonesia and South Korea are expected to become one of the world's ten largest economies in 2032. By 2030, there will be three Asian countries in the world's four largest economies, namely, China, India and Japan.

The research center says Australia has relied on natural resources to boost economic growth in recent years and has become one of the most popular immigrants in the world. Australia's acceptance of immigrants and the professional skills of immigrants will be an important factor in the future of Australia's economic growth.

In the 2015 - 2016 fiscal year, Australia accepted nearly 190 thousand immigrants. A October 2017 survey by the Australian Institute of population studies showed that 75% of Australians believe that Australia no longer needs to absorb more immigrants. The result of the survey is due to the impact of mass migration on the quality of life of Australians, as well as the changes in ethnicity and religion in Australia, the Institute said.

However, according to CEBR's report, with the advance of the wave of change in the data age, more and more innovative talents will be needed in the world, and one of the best ways is to introduce more talents through immigration. The report also predicts that the price of old energy will fall in the next 25 years as a result of the increase in the use of renewable energy. The energy power or the lack of diversity will be hindered by economic growth.

来源：人民网